Hello everybody!
Last time I shared with you a little EXCEL tool to calculate probabilities (http://www.magicplayer.org/forum/index.php?topic=893.0).
This time however I won't share something "little" with you but rather a monstrous database.
You can find it here: HL-Lists_2010-2013.xls (http://www.file-upload.net/download-7232354/HL-Lists_2010-2013.xls.html)
I collected all Highlander decklists posted on mp.org and mtgpulse.com beginning with late 2010 tournaments up to the present. (I surely missed several decks. Nevertheless the list is quite exhaustive...).
The EXCEL database contains more than 15600 rows of data!
I built the sheet in a way that for every card ever posted you will be able to know who played the card, where, when and in which deck. Additionally you will be able to know how many players attended the tournament, which place the card finished and how many HL-decklists where posted for this event.
You can use the sheet for all kinds of calculations. Here are two interesting results that I computed with the data.
Most commonly played cards in top finishing HL decks 2010-2013:
Rank Cardname total# Score (the lower this value the better the card performed compared to other top listed cards)
1 Wasteland 161 0,616545894
2 Misty Rainforest 143 0,603243978
3 Flooded Strand 140 0,606150794
4 Windswept Heath 137 0,609489051
5 Scalding Tarn 136 0,617749183
6 Marsh Flats 132 0,604482323
7 Polluted Delta 128 0,596137153
8 Verdant Catacombs 128 0,598307292
9 Arid Mesa 127 0,5970035
10 Wooded Foothills 124 0,594198029
11 Kitchen Finks 114 0,594176413
12 Swords to Plowshares 112 0,58891369
13 Bloodstained Mire 111 0,633758759
14 Phyrexian Metamorph 106 0,58110587
15 Stoneforge Mystic 103 0,583333333
16 Sensei's Divining Top 101 0,610286029
20 Birds of Paradise 95 0,571491228
21 Maze of Ith 94 0,597369976
22 Noble Hierarch 94 0,57358156
23 Sword of Fire and Ice 94 0,576536643
24 Oblivion Ring 92 0,588164251
.
.
.
Very interesting is the fact, that StP and Kitchen Finks appeared more often than Bloodstained Mire in top finishing lists!
Here's another statistic which shows the top performing cards (that appeared at least 20 times total) within all of the posted decklists (which basically means that these cards were especially good at winning tournaments or placed very high):
deck# Cardname total# Score
1 Rhox War Monk 22 0,504419192
1 Reveillark 27 0,513888889
1 Geist of Saint Traft 24 0,516203704
1 Razorverge Thicket 26 0,517628205
2 Forest 23 0,523550725
1 Enlightened Tutor 24 0,528935185
1 Into the Roil 21 0,534391534
1 Gaea's Cradle 23 0,535628019
1 Gifts Ungiven 20 0,5375
1 Birthing Pod 45 0,539814815
1 Arbor Elf 45 0,544135802
1 Stirring Wildwood 46 0,544384058
1 Sower of Temptation 34 0,546160131
1 Loxodon Hierarch 22 0,547348485
1 Temple Garden 71 0,552230047
1 Worldly Tutor 43 0,552648579
1 Seat of the Synod 24 0,553240741
1 Tainted Pact 44 0,55334596
1 Primeval Titan 55 0,554292929
Note the fact that a configuration of "2 Forest" seems to place very high overall. A curious fact is that "Into the Roil" seems to place very high, too. Rhox War Monk being at the top together with some other cards on this list suggests that Bant decks have been the cream of the crop during the last 3 years (add this to the fact that Kitchen Finks and StP are played more often than Bloodstained Mire...).
These are just two calculations that I made. Please feel free to do your own and share them with the community. I'm very interested in what else the data can tell us.
One thing though: Please make sure to disable the "auto-calculate function" in the Options menu of your EXCEL. At least with my laptop it can take quite a while to calculate more complex formula (especially when you choose to implement WHEN-operators and things like that).
'til next time!
Maqi
2 Forests to play Kitchen Finks in Mono Red obviously
I repeatet the "cream of the crop" analysis with an updated database. I chose only tournament data from 06/12 up until today. Here are the results:
Cardname | Total # | Score |
1 Plains | 20 | 0,523611111 |
1 Mother of Runes | 22 | 0,525883838 |
1 Enlightened Tutor | 27 | 0,531893004 |
1 Sylvan Library | 28 | 0,543650794 |
1 Scrubland | 24 | 0,545138889 |
1 Knight of the Reliquary | 27 | 0,549897119 |
1 Qasali Pridemage | 27 | 0,549897119 |
1 Treetop Village | 23 | 0,550724638 |
1 Tarmogoyf | 30 | 0,552777778 |
1 Temple Garden | 26 | 0,556089744 |
1 Sword of Fire and Ice | 32 | 0,556857639 |
1 Vindicate | 22 | 0,561237374 |
1 Savannah | 33 | 0,568181818 |
1 Mishra's Factory | 24 | 0,57349537 |
1 Stoneforge Mystic | 44 | 0,575757576 |
1 Eladamri's Call | 25 | 0,578888889 |
1 Karakas | 41 | 0,579268293 |
1 Aven Mindcensor | 32 | 0,579427083 |
1 Llanowar Elves | 23 | 0,580917874 |
1 Avacyn's Pilgrim | 22 | 0,587121212 |
1 Bayou | 25 | 0,588333333 |
1 Verdant Catacombs | 46 | 0,59057971 |
1 Noble Hierarch | 32 | 0,592447917 |
1 Path to Exile | 42 | 0,596230159 |
1 Swords to Plowshares | 50 | 0,5975 |
1 Scavenging Ooze | 32 | 0,598958333 |
1 Chain Lightning | 21 | 0,600529101 |
1 Elspeth, Knight-Errant | 34 | 0,60253268 |
1 Demonic Tutor | 30 | 0,602777778 |
1 Birds of Paradise | 31 | 0,60483871 |
1 Marsh Flats | 54 | 0,606481481 |
1 Wooded Foothills | 46 | 0,60718599 |
1 Arid Mesa | 54 | 0,60776749 |
1 Garruk Relentless | 25 | 0,607777778 |
1 Restoration Angel | 31 | 0,610215054 |
1 Oblivion Ring | 41 | 0,610433604 |
1 Green Sun's Zenith | 34 | 0,613970588 |
1 Misty Rainforest | 58 | 0,615181992 |
1 Natural Order | 21 | 0,616402116 |
1 Trinket Mage | 25 | 0,617222222 |
1 Celestial Colonnade | 21 | 0,619047619 |
1 Tundra | 37 | 0,619369369 |
1 Windswept Heath | 54 | 0,622685185 |
1 Flooded Strand | 60 | 0,62337963 |
1 Hallowed Fountain | 29 | 0,626436782 |
1 Eternal Witness | 27 | 0,62808642 |
1 Fauna Shaman | 22 | 0,628787879 |
1 Wasteland | 69 | 0,628824477 |
1 Polluted Delta | 54 | 0,629115226 |
1 Scalding Tarn | 58 | 0,630268199 |
1 Kitchen Finks | 44 | 0,630366162 |
1 Underground Sea | 21 | 0,631613757 |
1 Bloodstained Mire | 41 | 0,632452575 |
1 Remand | 23 | 0,634057971 |
1 Preordain | 32 | 0,637152778 |
1 Phyrexian Metamorph | 44 | 0,637626263 |
1 Maze of Ith | 39 | 0,642806268 |
1 Force of Will | 41 | 0,64600271 |
1 Mana Drain | 38 | 0,646564327 |
1 Sword of Feast and Famine | 29 | 0,652777778 |
1 Tectonic Edge | 33 | 0,653198653 |
1 Lightning Bolt | 32 | 0,653645833 |
1 Snapcaster Mage | 39 | 0,654558405 |
1 Tropical Island | 27 | 0,654835391 |
1 Mental Misstep | 20 | 0,65625 |
1 Sensei's Divining Top | 52 | 0,658119658 |
1 Batterskull | 27 | 0,659465021 |
1 Breeding Pool | 25 | 0,662777778 |
1 Mana Leak | 36 | 0,664351852 |
1 Jace, the Mind Sculptor | 42 | 0,66468254 |
1 Arc Trail | 28 | 0,668154762 |
1 Plateau | 20 | 0,66875 |
1 Gideon Jura | 20 | 0,66875 |
1 Cryptic Command | 21 | 0,669973545 |
1 Vendilion Clique | 34 | 0,672385621 |
1 Brainstorm | 41 | 0,672425474 |
1 Phantasmal Image | 36 | 0,676697531 |
1 Grim Lavamancer | 24 | 0,677083333 |
1 Daze | 28 | 0,679563492 |
1 Fact or Fiction | 27 | 0,684670782 |
1 Flametongue Kavu | 27 | 0,686728395 |
1 Ponder | 32 | 0,687934028 |
1 Ancestral Vision | 22 | 0,688762626 |
1 Counterspell | 31 | 0,690412186 |
1 Burst Lightning | 21 | 0,694444444 |
1 Bribery | 20 | 0,697222222 |
1 Venser, Shaper Savant | 31 | 0,698028674 |
Wow "1 Plains" = optimal configuration! ;)
Ignoring this odd number 1 we can see that white and green cards lead the field.
And here are the cards with the most appearances in top lists (absolute numbers), again regarding only data from 06/12 onwards:
Cardname | Total # | Score |
1 Wasteland | 69 | 0,628824477 |
1 Flooded Strand | 60 | 0,62337963 |
1 Scalding Tarn | 58 | 0,630268199 |
1 Misty Rainforest | 58 | 0,615181992 |
1 Polluted Delta | 54 | 0,629115226 |
1 Windswept Heath | 54 | 0,622685185 |
1 Arid Mesa | 54 | 0,60776749 |
1 Marsh Flats | 54 | 0,606481481 |
1 Sensei's Divining Top | 52 | 0,658119658 |
1 Swords to Plowshares | 50 | 0,5975 |
1 Wooded Foothills | 46 | 0,60718599 |
1 Verdant Catacombs | 46 | 0,59057971 |
1 Phyrexian Metamorph | 44 | 0,637626263 |
1 Kitchen Finks | 44 | 0,630366162 |
1 Stoneforge Mystic | 44 | 0,575757576 |
1 Jace, the Mind Sculptor | 42 | 0,66468254 |
1 Path to Exile | 42 | 0,596230159 |
1 Brainstorm | 41 | 0,672425474 |
1 Force of Will | 41 | 0,64600271 |
1 Bloodstained Mire | 41 | 0,632452575 |
1 Oblivion Ring | 41 | 0,610433604 |
1 Karakas | 41 | 0,579268293 |
1 Snapcaster Mage | 39 | 0,654558405 |
1 Maze of Ith | 39 | 0,642806268 |
1 Mana Drain | 38 | 0,646564327 |
1 Tundra | 37 | 0,619369369 |
1 Phantasmal Image | 36 | 0,676697531 |
1 Mana Leak | 36 | 0,664351852 |
1 Vendilion Clique | 34 | 0,672385621 |
1 Green Sun's Zenith | 34 | 0,613970588 |
1 Elspeth, Knight-Errant | 34 | 0,60253268 |
1 Tectonic Edge | 33 | 0,653198653 |
1 Savannah | 33 | 0,568181818 |
1 Ponder | 32 | 0,687934028 |
1 Lightning Bolt | 32 | 0,653645833 |
1 Preordain | 32 | 0,637152778 |
1 Scavenging Ooze | 32 | 0,598958333 |
1 Noble Hierarch | 32 | 0,592447917 |
1 Aven Mindcensor | 32 | 0,579427083 |
1 Sword of Fire and Ice | 32 | 0,556857639 |
1 Venser, Shaper Savant | 31 | 0,698028674 |
1 Counterspell | 31 | 0,690412186 |
1 Restoration Angel | 31 | 0,610215054 |
1 Birds of Paradise | 31 | 0,60483871 |
1 Demonic Tutor | 30 | 0,602777778 |
1 Tarmogoyf | 30 | 0,552777778 |
1 Sword of Feast and Famine | 29 | 0,652777778 |
1 Hallowed Fountain | 29 | 0,626436782 |
1 Daze | 28 | 0,679563492 |
1 Arc Trail | 28 | 0,668154762 |
1 Sylvan Library | 28 | 0,543650794 |
1 Flametongue Kavu | 27 | 0,686728395 |
1 Fact or Fiction | 27 | 0,684670782 |
1 Batterskull | 27 | 0,659465021 |
1 Tropical Island | 27 | 0,654835391 |
1 Eternal Witness | 27 | 0,62808642 |
1 Knight of the Reliquary | 27 | 0,549897119 |
1 Qasali Pridemage | 27 | 0,549897119 |
1 Enlightened Tutor | 27 | 0,531893004 |
1 Temple Garden | 26 | 0,556089744 |
1 Breeding Pool | 25 | 0,662777778 |
1 Trinket Mage | 25 | 0,617222222 |
1 Garruk Relentless | 25 | 0,607777778 |
1 Bayou | 25 | 0,588333333 |
1 Eladamri's Call | 25 | 0,578888889 |
1 Grim Lavamancer | 24 | 0,677083333 |
1 Mishra's Factory | 24 | 0,57349537 |
1 Scrubland | 24 | 0,545138889 |
1 Remand | 23 | 0,634057971 |
1 Llanowar Elves | 23 | 0,580917874 |
1 Treetop Village | 23 | 0,550724638 |
1 Ancestral Vision | 22 | 0,688762626 |
1 Fauna Shaman | 22 | 0,628787879 |
1 Avacyn's Pilgrim | 22 | 0,587121212 |
1 Vindicate | 22 | 0,561237374 |
1 Mother of Runes | 22 | 0,525883838 |
1 Burst Lightning | 21 | 0,694444444 |
1 Cryptic Command | 21 | 0,669973545 |
1 Underground Sea | 21 | 0,631613757 |
1 Celestial Colonnade | 21 | 0,619047619 |
1 Natural Order | 21 | 0,616402116 |
1 Chain Lightning | 21 | 0,600529101 |
1 Bribery | 20 | 0,697222222 |
1 Gideon Jura | 20 | 0,66875 |
1 Plateau | 20 | 0,66875 |
1 Mental Misstep | 20 | 0,65625 |
1 Plains | 20 | 0,523611111 |
Also very interesting, I think. As usual Wasteland and fetchlands lead the list, but then white and blue cards dominate.
What does this tell us? Please feel free to discuss.
No worldly tutor. That is odd ;)
I listed only cards that appeared at least 20 times since 06/12. Worldly Tutor made its way into the top finishing decks just 17 times...
That´s because it`s a mediocre card.
But 44 Soneforge mystics in 69 decks? Guess you know what to do now.
We should do what the -36 Karma guy recommend
.
Btw. thanks for the work maqi, I know how hard the datamining is ;)
Quote from: W0lf on 13-03-2013, 03:06:00 PM
That´s because it`s a mediocre card.
But 44 Soneforge mystics in 69 decks? Guess you know what to do now.
Where can I vote for a troll&spam button for this forum?
His Karma aside... that percentage is quite high.
Thanks to Maqi for his effort to gather the data... but I really don't envy you people in the council for your job. When I just look to this card list, I see almost a pure goodstuff deck ready to be played.
I just copy / pasted the list in deckstats.net and that's what I'm refering to in the following.
Looking roughly at the cards played, there are several cards with UU in the mana cost and Cryptic Command. Green and white come up with two cards with double colored mana in the casting cost. There are no black or red cards with double colored mana in the list.
-> To me it seems that if you're playing control - you play blue based decks (nothing new, I suppose). I'm even a bit surprised that there is Bribery and Cryptic Command in the list... maybe control decks are not that dead in the format as I used to think but there is no diversity, even though other options exist (... but are not competitive enough?).
-> Also taking account of the number of cards of the different colors, we got a format containing just 3 colors: blue, white, green. Maybe red is there as a sidenote. Black does not seem to have any impact on the best decks at all, even though cards like Demonic Tutor and Dark Confidant exist.
35% of the lands in the list produce white mana. That leads me to the assumption that white is the most popular splash color. For which reasons... Kitchen Finks, Stoneforge Mystic, flexible or very cheap removal. IF you really look foreward to change that, maybe Stoneforge Mystic is really a card to consider to ban. I'm writing that because of the statistics and because the card is frowned upon by many people. I myself am not sure whether I would vote for a ban... but fortunately, that is not my task. ;)
As far as I see it, there are almost no cards (besides Bribery and Cryptic Command) that I associate with certain archetypes. It's really just goodstuff overall and thus "shapeless" which makes it hard for me to get a clear view of what is to do (concerning the ban list) to "cure" the HL format (of a goodstuff sickness?).
At least now I can say that I think it would not help the format to ban Demonic Tutor. The card is the best card to gather combo pieces - an archetype that is rare currently. Also colorwise, one would take away one of the few competitive toys the black player has left. It seems to me like the format "balances" the absurd power level of the black tutor by it's "wrong" color (it sounds weird, I know). To me, it seems like players like to spalsh black for two or three cards (because it's easy with that manabase) but if you ban them, most of them won't miss it too much - it was a spash anyway. Just fill the slots with the next best blue / white / green card.
One last thing: there is no mass removal in the list at all... in a creature heavy format. Is control with a low creature count so bad in comparison with spells-on-legs-control that you cannot play it sccessfully, even though you got a fair number of mass removal at hand. Or is it too slow? (I know about Tabrys' Esper list... is he just the only one who likes this kind of deck?)
It's just a list of things that came to my mind. Certainly, I missed some points. I just hope that you take them as a motivation to start discussing. :) Maybe I'll add some points, when I have more time to brood over the card list, but right now I got the impression that it is not an easy task.
@Council: Keep up the good work.
@all: Keep on playing! ;D